Trade the crowd, not the price.
Settled is the crypto sentiment market. Is the crowd bullish or bearish? Pick a side, settle in hours. Every market auto-resolves from exchange data and auto-pays winners in USDC. No human oracles. No disputes. No price exposure.
The Thesis
Every crypto has a crowd leaning long or short. When the crowd is overleveraged long, they pay a premium. When overleveraged short, they receive one. This flow — called funding — settles over $2 billion daily across exchanges.
We studied years of these settlements across every major exchange and found something remarkable: crowd sentiment is highly predictable. When the crowd is heavily positioned on one side, the next settlement almost always confirms it. The patterns are structural, not random.
Settled makes this tradeable. Instead of taking a price position, you trade a binary question: “Is the crowd bullish or bearish?” The answer comes from the exchange itself. Deterministic. Verifiable. Every few hours. Zero price exposure.
How It Works
Scan & Create
Our scheduler scans 6 exchanges every 30 minutes. For each upcoming settlement, a binary market is automatically priced and created.
Trade
Users deposit USDC on Solana and buy YES or NO shares. The AMM provides instant liquidity. Prices update with every trade.
Resolve & Pay
At settlement time, the oracle fetches the actual rate from the exchange (triple-source verified). Winners are paid automatically. No claims needed.
The Team
Fistya Kisra
FounderStrategy Discovery & Architecture
Quantitative strategy discoverer who built Zirodelta from a funding rate dataset into the crypto sentiment market. 6 exchanges. 3,700+ perpetual futures. Real-time oracle. Previously built cross-exchange arbitrage engines, backtesting frameworks, and AI-augmented development pipelines. Targeting YC Fall 2026.
Zirodelta Research
ResearchQuantitative Analysis & Model Development
The research arm of Zirodelta. Data-driven analysis of crypto sentiment markets, pricing model calibration across 1,900+ symbols, market microstructure research, and AMM pricing optimization. Powered by AI-augmented development with a 20-agent engineering team.
The team is small by design. Strategy discovery, AI-augmented development, and a 20-agent engineering team that ships like a company of 15. We track cost-per-diff and scale with compute, not headcount.
Timeline
Started studying funding rate mechanics across exchanges
Built cross-exchange funding rate intelligence infrastructure
First cross-exchange funding rate arbitrage engine (Beta-X1)
Stress-tested 10 strategy variants — spot-vs-perp survives all scenarios
Pivoted: funding rates are crowd sentiment — Settled is born
Proprietary pricing model calibrated across 1,900+ perpetual futures.
Solana vault deployed. Oracle daemon resolving real markets on devnet.
Technology
Get in Touch
Partnerships, integrations, or just want to talk crypto sentiment.