Market Regime Update — Mar 21, 2026
Ten days of data. 136,686 settlements. The market regime is shifting — slowly, but the direction is clear.
Data covers settlements through March 16, 2026 across four exchanges.
The Trend
Average daily funding rates have been negative for the entire observation window, but the trajectory is upward. The most negative day was March 8 (-0.011%). By March 16, the aggregate average had recovered to -0.0042%. Simultaneously, the fraction of positive settlements climbed from 47.2% to 68.3%.
| Date | Avg Rate (%) | Positive % | Settlements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | -0.0094 | 47.7 | 10,138 |
| Mar 8 | -0.0110 | 47.2 | 14,844 |
| Mar 9 | -0.0082 | 57.9 | 14,898 |
| Mar 10 | -0.0074 | 59.6 | 14,943 |
| Mar 11 | -0.0114 | 57.2 | 14,973 |
| Mar 12 | -0.0069 | 59.8 | 15,042 |
| Mar 13 | -0.0059 | 66.4 | 14,981 |
| Mar 14 | -0.0104 | 57.7 | 14,963 |
| Mar 15 | -0.0085 | 60.6 | 14,943 |
| Mar 16 | -0.0042 | 68.3 | 6,961 |
The March 11 and March 14 dips (-0.0114% and -0.0104%) are the exceptions. Both broke the recovery trend and dragged positive rate percentages back toward 57-58%. These are not noise — they signal the regime hasn't fully flipped. The short bias is still present; it just keeps losing ground.
March 7 shows low settlement volume (10,138 vs. ~15,000/day) because data collection was partial for that day. March 16 is similarly truncated at 6,961, reflecting data captured only through 08:00 UTC.
Exchange Breakdown: 14-Day Summary
| Exchange | Settlements | Avg Rate (%) | Positive % | Max Rate (%) | Min Rate (%) | Volatility (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid | 49,922 | -0.0013 | 51.0 | +0.1016 | -0.8486 | 0.0124 |
| KuCoin | 29,293 | -0.0160 | 45.6 | +0.7796 | -2.0000 | 0.1244 |
| Bybit | 28,768 | -0.0117 | 72.5 | +0.3973 | -2.7564 | 0.1037 |
| Binance | 28,703 | -0.0102 | 68.5 | +0.8060 | -2.0000 | 0.0842 |
The divergence is structural, not cyclical.
Hyperliquid is nearly balanced: 51% positive settlements, average rate of -0.0013%. This is as close to a neutral regime as you'll find in crypto perpetuals. Volatility at 0.0124% is an order of magnitude below every other exchange. Hyperliquid's 1-hour settlement cadence (vs. 8-hour on most others) accounts for the higher settlement count — 49,922 vs. ~28,000-29,000 — but not the stability. That comes from the participant mix.
KuCoin is the outlier in the other direction. Average rate of -0.0160% is the most negative of the group. Only 45.6% of settlements are positive, meaning the short bias is not just mean-driven — it's the majority case. Volatility at 0.1244% reflects an aggressive long-tail of altcoin listings. When a small-cap perp with thin open interest gets hit, it prints rates at ±2%, dragging the exchange-level average negative.
Bybit and Binance share the same structure. Both have majority-positive settlement rates (72.5% and 68.5%) but negative means. The mechanism is the same on both: the majority of settlements cluster at or near the minimum floor (+0.005%), while a minority of bearish-regime tokens print strongly negative rates that pull the average down. The negative mean is driven by outliers, not the typical settlement.
Against the YTD Baseline
The two-week window sits inside a longer negative-rate regime that has persisted since January 1, 2026.
| Exchange | YTD Avg Rate (%) | YTD Positive % | Recent Avg Rate (%) | Recent Positive % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid | -0.0021 | 53.8 | -0.0013 | 51.0 |
| Bybit | -0.0101 | 78.0 | -0.0117 | 72.5 |
| KuCoin | -0.0169 | 45.8 | -0.0160 | 45.6 |
| Binance | -0.0113 | 68.2 | -0.0102 | 68.5 |
Hyperliquid is improving against its own baseline: recent average (-0.0013%) is meaningfully less negative than YTD (-0.0021%). Binance is also tracking slightly better. KuCoin is in line with its YTD norm — persistent short bias, no recovery. Bybit is slightly worse in the two-week window compared to the full-year average.
The pattern: Hyperliquid is the fastest to reflect regime shifts. Its 1-hour settlement frequency and more systematic participant base means rates respond quickly when positioning changes. KuCoin is the laggard — structurally bearish since January, no meaningful improvement.
What Drives a Bearish Rate Regime
Negative funding means shorts are paying longs — the market is net short the underlying. Two scenarios produce this:
- Genuine bearish positioning: traders expect prices to fall and hold short perp exposure, bidding rates negative.
- Cash-and-carry unwind: when spot yields or lending rates are attractive, traders sell spot and short perps to collect carry, which pushes perp prices below spot and drives funding negative.
The current regime shows characteristics of both. The sustained nature (since January) and the exchange-level variance (Hyperliquid near-neutral vs. KuCoin deeply negative) suggest it's not a uniform macro call. KuCoin's altcoin-heavy listing profile tilts toward genuine bearish positioning in lower-cap assets. Hyperliquid's near-neutrality suggests the large-cap market is closer to equilibrium.
If the trend in daily positive settlement rates continues its March 7–16 trajectory — 47% toward 68% — the aggregate rate will likely cross into neutral territory (avg > 0) within the next five to ten days, assuming no macro shock reverses the flow.
Related reading:
- Exchange Funding Rate Comparison: Mar 18, 2026 — the cross-exchange breakdown from earlier this week
- Deep Dive: LYNUSDT Funding Rate Analysis — a symbol-level case study
- How the OU Model Predicts Funding Rates — the model that prices Settled's markets
- Browse All Markets — live funding rate data across all four exchanges
- All Funding Rate Data — live rates for 2,400+ pairs
- Predict Markets — trade your conviction on where rates will settle
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