Why We Built Settled
Every day, over $2 billion moves through funding rate settlements across crypto exchanges. Longs pay shorts. Shorts pay longs. It happens every 1, 4, or 8 hours across 3,700+ perpetual futures contracts.
Yet there's no way to trade this flow directly.
The Gap
If you believe BTC funding will stay positive, your only option is to open a leveraged short: putting up margin, risking liquidation, paying trading fees, and managing a position you don't actually want. You're not trading the rate. You're trading BTC with extra steps.
Prediction markets solved this for elections, sports, and weather. You buy YES or NO shares. The event happens. You get paid. No margin. No liquidation. No position management.
Settled does this for funding rates.
How It Works
- Our scheduler scans 6 exchanges every 30 minutes
- For each upcoming settlement, it creates a binary market: "Will the rate be positive?"
- Our OU model (calibrated across 1,900+ perpetual futures) sets the opening price
- Users trade YES/NO shares using USDC on Solana
- At settlement time, the oracle reads the actual rate from the exchange
- Winners get paid automatically. No claims. No disputes.
Markets resolve in hours, not months. You can trade 50+ markets per day.
Why Now
Three things converged:
The data exists. We've been studying funding rate behavior since 2019. Enough to build a predictive model that actually works (89% directional accuracy). See the full BTC/USDT funding rate history to understand the dataset.
The infrastructure exists. Solana processes settlements in under a second for fractions of a cent. LMSR pricing is well-understood. Auto-resolution from API data is deterministic.
The demand exists. Funding rate farming is a $10B+ DeFi segment. Ethena alone manages $3B+ in basis trades. But retail has zero access to the underlying instrument. Settled opens that door.
What's Next
We're live on devnet with real exchange data flowing through the oracle. Mainnet launch is weeks away. The first markets will cover BTC, ETH, and SOL across Binance and Bybit, expanding to 50+ symbols as the system proves itself.
The house has an edge. The data proves it. Now we're building the market around it.
Learn more about Settled, or read about us in the press.
Related reading:
- Funding Rates Are Prediction Markets — the data behind the thesis
- How the OU Model Works — 89% directional accuracy across 1,900+ symbols
- LMSR for Funding Rates — why we chose this AMM
- Browse Live Markets — see it in action
- About Settled — who we are and how the platform works
The research arm of Zirodelta. Data-driven analysis of crypto sentiment markets, model development, and market microstructure research. Data-driven. Real-time. Across 6 exchanges and 3,700+ perpetual futures.
Learn more about Zirodelta →